One of the first major fall festivals of awards season was handed out yesterday. May el-Toukhy’s latest film Woman Unknown won the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival yesterday afternoon. It was considered a very surprising win considering the strong competition at the festival this year with other contenders such as Wild Horse Nine, Primetime, NAZA, and Possible Love. The win is even more impressive considering that this is director May el-Thouky’s third feature film and is more well known for her television work. However, does this win mean the beginning of an awards cycle for her? Or is this an anomaly for Woman Unknown and we should not expect much else from it moving forward? Based on the 20 year sample of Golden Lion winners, I believe it is an anomaly for a Best Picture nomination.

Golden Lion Winner	Oscar Best Picture Win	Oscar Best Picture Nomination
Still Life	No	No
Lust, Caution	No	No
The Wrestler	No	No
Lebanon	No	No
Somewhere	No	No
Faust	No	No
Pieta	No	No
Sacro GRA	No	No
A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence	No	No
From Afar	No	No
The Woman Who Left	No	No
The Shape of Water	Yes	Yes
Roma	No	Yes
Joker	No	Yes
Nomadland	Yes	Yes
Happening	No	No
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed	No	No
Poor Things	No	Yes
The Room Next Door	No	No
Father Mother Sister Brother	No	No

As you can see from the 20 year sample list above, only 5 of the previous 20 Golden Lion winners, which is 25%, have gone on to be nominated for Best Picture. Only 2 of those 5 (The Shape of Water and Nomadland) have gone all the way and won Best Picture, which means only 10% of the Golden Lion winners in the past 20 years have won Best Picture and only 40% of the Golden Lion winners that were nominated for Best Picture ended up winning. It is a fairly bleak picture statistics wise. It is even more bleak considering that the last Best Picture nominee that won the Golden Lion was 3 years ago and the last Best Picture winner was 6 years ago.

While I do think it has a tougher road ahead for a Best Picture nomination, I do think its chances of being nominated for Best International Film are stronger. However, a win might not happen due to strong competition in that race this year with La Bola Negra and Palme d’Or winner Fjord already in the race. Netflix is particularly putting a lot of eggs into the La Bola Negra Oscar campaign basket, with the film expected not only to be a frontrunner in that category but a strong contender for the Best Picture race. Not to mention, Woman Unknown‘s only known festival premiere outside of Venice at this time is the BFI London Film Festival. The film also does not have a North American distributor currently, which puts the film at a disadvantage. While I would not be surprised if Woman Unknown makes the cut for a Best International Film nomination, I think it winning at this time is a huge long shot.

As stated above, I think Woman Unknown will not be a strong Best Picture nominee even with its win at Venice. Based on the historical data provided, the Golden Lion-Best Picture correlation is so low based on the previous 20 years and considering the previous two winners were shut out of the Oscar race entirely, I am not expecting a Best Picture nomination. While I do think it will fare better in Best International Film, it still needs a distributor that will help build up its campaign. Considering it has only one other festival premiere currently, it has a strong disadvantage currently compared to other contenders in the race. So, considering the data, I don’t have a lot of faith in Woman Unknown getting into the Best Picture race, but congratulations to director May el-Toukhy’s win on her third feature film! That is impressive for an early career.

Thank you all for reading this and please feel free to comment your thoughts! I look forward to interacting with all of you this awards season and sharing with all of you how The Oscar Code can help determine what will win Best Picture long before the awards begin.