One of the first major festival awards of awards season was handed out Saturday afternoon. Cristian Mungiu’s latest film Fjord won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival this weekend. This is the second time Mungiu won the Palme d’Or, previously winning in 2007 for his film 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days. What does this weekend’s win mean for the film’s chances down the line? Although this is a very early award and there is so much unknown with this current awards season, history and recent statistics are heavily favorable for Fjord’s chances. Without much further ado, here is a deep dive analysis on previous Palme winners and why I think Fjord is a film to keep an eye on this awards season.

While Fjord was considered the favorite to win the Palme pre-Cannes, it ended up being a very surprising winner considering the strong competition in this year’s Cannes lineup. Films like Fatherland, The Black Ball, Minotaur, All of a Sudden, and Coward all were in strong consideration to win the Palme, but Fjord ended up winning out. As said above, this is Mungiu’s second Palme d’Or win. This is also distributor Neon’s seventh straight Palme d’Or win, continuing its streak that started with Parasite in 2019. Neon’s seven year streak is particularly why I feel good about Fjord’s chances. The 20 year sample below will add some context.

Palme d’Or Winner	Oscar Best Picture Win	Oscar Best Picture Nomination
4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days	No	No
The Class	No	No
The White Ribbon	No	No
Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives	No	No
The Tree of Life	No	Yes
Amour	No	Yes
Blue is the Warmest Color	No	No
Winter Sleep	No	No
Dheepan	No	No
I, Daniel Blake	No	No
The Square	No	No
Shoplifters	No	No
Parasite	Yes	Yes
Titane	No	No
Triangle of Sadness	No	Yes
Anatomy of a Fall	No	Yes
Anora	Yes	Yes
It Was Just An Accident	No	No
Total Best Picture Wins in 20 Year Sample	2
Likelihood Film Wins Best Picture After Winning Award	10%
Total Best Picture Nominations in 20 Years	6
Likelihood Film Gets Best Picture Nomination After Winning Award	30%

As you can see from the 20 year sample list above, only 6 of the previous 20 Palme d’Or winners (30%), have gone on to be nominated for Best Picture. Only two of those six (Parasite and Anora) have gone all the way and won Best Picture, which means only 10% of the Palme d’Or winners have won Best Picture and only 33.3% of the Palme d’Or winners that were nominated for Best Picture ended up winning. These statistics are bleak for a 20 year sample…however, when you consider the seven year streak that Neon has had, that paints a different story. Neon has had four of their six previous Palme d’Or winners nominated for Best Picture (66.7%) and two of the four ultimately won the award (50%). Neon’s win streak and their overall success at getting these winners nominations are the statistic I am buying into more than the 20 year sample.

I know some people have some concerns after last year’s It Was Just An Accident was surprisingly snubbed for Picture last awards season. There is some context on the Palme win and where the studio’s priority lied at Cannes and subsequent awards. Neon acquired It Was Just An Accident days before it won the Palme d’Or. Neon had bought several films during the Cannes Film Festival last year, including Sirat and The Secret Agent. However, their true priority at the festival last year was Sentimental Value, which was a film they produced and acquired the rights for a year before it premiered at Cannes. Neon had invested a lot of their campaign money into Sentimental Value and was their most successful awards film last season with it winning Best International Feature and landing several Oscar and guild nominations. Neon did not value It Was Just An Accident like they did with Sentimental Value, which explains why the former missed a Best Picture nomination. Fjord, like Sentimental Value, was Neon’s top priority at the festival this season and I think this is the beginning of the Oscar campaign cycle for this film.

I am very excited to see how Neon campaigns this film and how it does in upcoming festivals. The particular festival I am keeping an eye on is Toronto International Film Festival. If Fjord places top three there for the Audience Award, I’m moving it from easy nomination to frontrunner for Best Picture. As I discussed in my Anora case study, both Parasite and Anora placed top three for the Audience Award at that festival in addition to its Palme d’Or win. If Fjord has that same combination, I will be pushing the “Paranora path” trend in my analysis for the upcoming Oscar season. This trend showcases strong international love in a film that helps it overcome its competition and becomes a true frontrunner. Yes, it’s very early and there’s a lot that needs to happen in the race, but there is a chance Fjord could pull this off thanks to Neon’s brilliant campaigning over the years.

Saying all of that, does winning the Palme d’Or bode well for Fjord winning Best Picture? Based on recent history and statistics, I think Fjord is a lock for a Best Picture nomination at this point. Neon has done well with a majority of their Palme d’Or winners over the years and considering that this film was their top priority at Cannes, they are building the campaign as we speak. As for a Best Picture win, it is too early to tell but I would like to see how it performs in Toronto. If it places top three in the Audience Award there, I firmly believe it could win Best Picture like Parasite and Anora before it. A lot of other festivals and awards left to go, but currently I would be surprised if Fjord is not nominated for Best Picture come next winter.

Thank you all for reading this and please feel free to comment your thoughts! While the next major festivals will not be until the fall time frame, that does not mean The Oscar Code will be quiet. Stay tuned in the coming weeks for upcoming content announcements that will help you prepare for this upcoming awards season! I look forward to interacting with all of you and sharing how The Oscar Code can help determine what will win Best Picture long before the awards begin.