Welcome back to the next installment of The Oscar Code’s Case Study series. I hope you all enjoyed my I’m Still Here article from Sunday and learned a lot about that film’s Oscar campaign path. As mentioned before, this is a series that will go over the previous year’s Best Picture nominees and why it ultimately won or lost the award that year using historical data. The order of the series will be in reverse chronological order of the odds of winning for last year’s Best Picture nominees from Ben Zausmer’s Oscar Betting Odds 2025 article. The next film that will be discussed is Dune: Part Two.

The Story During Awards Season: Dune: Part Two, the second film in the successful Dune trilogy, was nominated for Best Picture after outgrossing its predecessor at the box office and was deemed by many critics to be superior to the original film. Outside of Best Picture, the film was also nominated for Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Sound, and Best Visual Effects. The film ultimately won Best Sound and Best Visual Effects at the ceremony. However, many fans were disappointed by Denis Villeneuve’s snub for Best Director and felt that the film was overshadowed by other, lesser known nominees that season.

What Helped Its Nomination: Dune: Part Two was one of the most well received blockbusters last awards season. Not only did it fare well with critics, audiences loved the film as well to the point where it outgrossed the original film at the box office by $304 million. The film also was nominated for Best Picture-Drama at the Golden Globes and Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and the Producers Guild of America Awards. It was also listed in the American Film Institute’s top 10 films of 2024. A strong box office and the fact several different voting groups nominated it for Best Picture like its predecessor showed that this film was always a lock for a Best Picture nomination that season.

Why It Ended Up Losing Best Picture: While Dune: Part Two outdid its predecessor box office wise and critically, it actually performed worse than the original film with voters. As mentioned above, Dune: Part Two was nominated for 5 Oscars and won 2, the original film won 6 Oscars of its 10 nominations and was the second highly nominated Best Picture nominee that year. The Oscars were not the only voting body the original film did better than the sequel did, Part One was also nominated for Directors Guild of America and was listed in the top 10 films for the National Board of Review. Additionally, Dune: Part Two also had a very early release date in March which has hurt some nominees in the past. However, the one thing that helped the first Dune that did not help its sequel was the fact it was not up against another blockbuster that awards season. Wicked was also in last year’s race and slowly became the Academy voters’ favorite of the blockbuster nominees. Wicked had the benefit of a November release date, which is prime for nominated films. Wicked ended up with 10 nominations, which doubled Dune: Part Two’s total nomination count. Additionally, Wicked had acting nominees and more guild support than Dune, which made it a stronger contender on paper.

The Ultimate Takeaway: Dune: Part Two was a favorite nominee of many audiences last Awards season. Unfortunately due to a very early release date, a lack of guild support, and unexpected competition from another blockbuster that year, it disappointed awards wise as a result. Some will say the early release date hurt it or that the Academy might wait to award Villeneuve for when he completes the trilogy like they did with Peter Jackson in 2003 for his Lord of the Rings trilogy. Time will tell on the latter. Truthfully, while the early release did not help it, I think it truly just lost steam with voters in the long run and Wicked stole its thunder when it mattered the most for Dune: Part Two. Warner Brothers has two major nominees this awards season with Sinners and One Battle After Another and have won Best Picture as a studio in the past, hopefully they learned their lessons from this film’s campaign and avoid those mistakes with these two films.

Hope you all enjoyed the latest installment of the Case Study series! The next installment will be out on Thursday and will cover Nickel Boys. Feel free to provide feedback and ask any questions about this series! I look forward to hearing from all of you.