Happy Oscar night everyone! I hope you were able to print the ballots I had created yesterday and if not, you can access here. It has been a crazy but great Oscar season with a strong battle for Picture and several of the acting races still hard to predict. I look forward to seeing what unfolds tonight. Here are my final predictions on each category of this year’s Academy Awards, where I discuss Picture, Director, and the Acting races in depth and provide my predictions for the other categories!

BEST PICTURE

Prediction: One Battle After Another

This race has gotten closer in the past few weeks with Sinners winning Best Ensemble at the Actor Awards. However, One Battle After Another has had the more dominant Oscar season of the two films with wins at PGA, DGA, Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes, and several critics groups. With everything that it has won so far, I think this is the safer prediction to make and I anticipate a lot of streaks for certain voting bodies that have not aligned with the Oscar Best Picture to break tonight.

Possible Spoiler: Sinners

Saying all of that, there is very much a real chance Sinners could pull off the upset. Its Ensemble win at the Actor Awards has had huge historic precedent in the past for several films to pull off the Best Picture win with just this award (Parasite, Spotlight, and Crash to name famous examples). However….Conclave was also heavily predicted as an upset candidate last awards cycle with this win and went home without Best Picture. Sinners does have more passion from voters than Conclave though and there is a world where my early Best Picture prediction from October pulls the upset.

BEST DIRECTOR

Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

This is pretty much a lock. Anderson has won this award pretty much every awards show this season and I do not see this changing tonight even if Sinners pulls off a Best Picture upset. I am very happy for Anderson who has been long overdue for a while.

Possible Spoiler: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

I do not see this upset happening compared to Picture. But if Coogler wins Director tonight….watch out for Sinners.

BEST ACTOR

Prediction: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Best Actor is still considered an open race for many. However, I am going with the Actor Award win to help Michael B. Jordan overcome the rest of the competition. This would be a great win for Jordan considering he’s been in so many great roles over the years and this is the first time he has truly been recognized for that.

Possible Spoiler: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

I no longer believe in Timothee Chalamet’s chances after he lost the BAFTA and Actor Award (the opera controversy happened after voting closed so this has nothing to do with that). While Leo has not won anything this cycle, the face of the frontrunner trend has been a thing this decade and if voters love One Battle After Another, I can see a case where Leo pulls a surprising win.

BEST ACTRESS

Prediction: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Just like Director, this is another lock tonight. Buckley has been dominating this category all awards season and I do not see a world where she loses. I know some people believe The Bride! could hurt her, the film was released after voting closed and Eddie Redmayne won an Oscar weeks after Jupiter Ascending. Do not overthink this one.

Possible Spoiler: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

I do not see this happening given Buckley’s dominance this cycle, but Byrne would be a likely upset due to her wins at the Golden Globes and other critics groups this cycle. But considering the Actor and BAFTA loss, I’m not buying into this as much.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Prediction: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

While Penn lost the Globe and appeared to be an afterthought early on in the race, his wins at the Actor Awards and BAFTA I think sealed up his chances to win his third Oscar tonight. My only hesitancy against calling it a lock is due to Penn not being a well liked figure and can see voters going another direction for that reason.

Possible Spoiler: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

If Penn does not win tonight, this race could go in numerous directions. Jacob Elordi won this category at Critics Choice Awards and Skarsgård won the Globe. Del Toro lost steam post early critics groups and Lindo was not nominated in this category outside of the Oscars. Considering this, I would go for Skarsgård considering the Globe win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Prediction: Amy Madigan, Weapons

This is the toughest category to call this cycle. While Madigan is the only nomination for Weapons, I am banking on her to win tonight because of her win at the Actor Awards and the Critics Choice Awards. However, this race is not as safe for her given she is not in a Best Picture nominated film.

Possible Spoiler: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Considering the wide open race, I think Mosaku could pull off an upset since she won this category at BAFTA showing she has favor with more international voters.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Prediction: Sinners

Possible Spoiler: Sentimental Value

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Prediction: One Battle After Another

Possible Spoiler: Hamnet

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters

Possible Spoiler: Zootopia 2

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Prediction: Sentimental Value

Possible Spoiler: The Secret Agent

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM

Prediction: The Perfect Neighbor

Possible Spoiler: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

BEST CASTING

Prediction: Sinners

Possible Spoiler: One Battle After Another

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Prediction: One Battle After Another

Possible Spoiler: Sinners

BEST FILM EDITING

Prediction: One Battle After Another

Possible Spoiler: Sinners

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Prediction: Frankenstein

Possible Spoiler: Sinners

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Prediction: Frankenstein

Possible Spoiler: Sinners

BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC SCORE

Prediction: Sinners

Possible Spoiler: One Battle After Another

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Prediction: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

Possible Spoiler: “I Lied to You” from Sinners

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Prediction: Frankenstein

Possible Spoiler: Sinners

BEST SOUND

Prediction: F1

Possible Spoiler: Sinners

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Prediction: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Possible Spoiler: Sinners

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Prediction: All the Empty Rooms

Possible Spoiler: The Devil Is Busy

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Prediction: Two People Exchanging Saliva

Possible Spoiler: The Singers

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Prediction: Butterfly

Possible Spoiler: Retirement Plan

Good luck to everyone in their Oscar pools and enjoy your Oscar night! Stay tuned for my Oscars Lessons Learned tomorrow after the show to reflect on what we learned in the Oscar year statistically.