Over the weekend, two of the major Guilds revealed their winners and as a result, revealed a bit more about the Oscars. One Battle After Another won Best Picture at the Producers Guild of America awards Saturday evening. Sinners won Best Ensemble at the Actor Awards, along with a Best Actor win for Michael B. Jordan. These two are the biggest Guilds of the awards season with both winners have massive implications on the race. In today’s stock report, we will discuss which storylines that you want to buy into for the Oscars and which to ignore or sell.

STOCK UP

One Battle After Another is statistically the frontrunner. With its win at Producers Guild of America on Saturday, One Battle After Another cemented its status as the current frontrunner for Best Picture. This is not the film’s only major Guild win this season, it had won Best Director at the Directors Guild of America a few weeks ago as well. In the past 20 years, 65% of the Best Picture winners had two or more Guild wins. 75% of them won the PGA and 65% won the DGA. These alone make One Battle After Another the safe frontrunner to bet on for Best Picture on Oscar night after a dominant awards season. However, if you want to take a risk…..

Sinners is still very much alive and Michael B. Jordan is the frontrunner for Best Actor. Last night, Sinners won Best Ensemble at the Actor Awards. This is a major win and a much needed Guild win for the blockbuster horror film, which signifies it as the #2 film behind One Battle After Another…or maybe the #1 for Best Picture. There is historical precedent for films to win Best Picture with only the Actor Awards. 55% of the Best Picture winners in the past 20 years won Best Ensemble at the Actor Awards and only 30% of the Best Picture winners in that time span have won only one Guild award. So what I am saying is, yes Sinners has a chance like Crash, Spotlight, and Parasite to win Best Picture with only the Ensemble award at the Actor Awards. It is a great alternative bet to consider. As for Michael B. Jordan’s win for Best Actor, he is the safe current frontrunner for the Oscar. While the Best Actor category has been unpredictable this season with various other voting bodies going different directions, I think the fact voters love Sinners is enough for Michael B. Jordan to pull off the win after the Actor Awards.

Sean Penn is a lock. Don’t overthink this. After the Golden Globes, Best Supporting Actor appeared to be a race where the winner would likely be unknown until Oscar night. However, the Actor Awards and BAFTA solidified this race with Sean Penn winning in this category for One Battle After Another. Penn is the clear frontrunner in this category with both of those wins. While there has been chatter about a potential upset in the category on Oscar night, I am not buying it. Penn has both the international support and the support of the actors branch with his wins this season. Expect him to win his third Oscar.

Jessie Buckley is also a lock. This one is much more obvious, but yes Jessie Buckley is winning Best Actress in a few weeks. She has won the Critics Choice Award, the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, and now the Actor Award for Best Lead Actress for Hamnet. By dominating the category this awards season, you can safely bet on Buckley to win Best Actress in a few weeks. While Focus Features has been terrible at winning Best Picture, they are good at making sure one category is dominant all awards season. And this year it is Best Actress.

STOCK TO KEEP AN EYE ON

Best Supporting Actress is still wide open. Amy Madigan won Best Supporting Actress last night at the Actor Awards for Weapons. While this win helps her, the sole reason I am not as confident as Jordan’s win for Sinners is because she is the only nomination for Weapons and the film does not have a Best Picture nomination. That could make it very difficult for Madigan to pull off the win. Outside of that, Teyana Taylor won the Golden Globe for One Battle After Another and Wunmi Mosaku won the BAFTA for Sinners in this category. This race really could go either way considering the other two are in the top two Best Picture contenders this season.

STOCK DOWN

It is over for Timothee Chalamet and Marty Supreme. Arguably the biggest loser of the awards season post-Golden Globes, Marty Supreme has underwhelmed at every awards show outside of that night. Additionally, Timothee Chalamet was expected to win the Actor Award for Best Actor last night and lost to Michael B. Jordan. He also lost at BAFTA where the film itself went home empty handed. While there’s possible reasons for the film’s recent awards underperformance (voter fatigue for Chalamet’s campaign and some off-set controversy with the film’s director), this is still a very disappointing season for Timothee Chalamet. I am not only expecting him to lose the Oscar, I think it could be a long time before he wins one considering back to back disappointing seasons.

Frankenstein will be a crafts contender, nothing more. While most people expected Frankenstein to be primarily a player in the crafts categories, there was still some hope Jacob Elordi could be a big player in Best Supporting Actor. He had won Best Supporting Actor at the Critics Choice Awards and considering how wide open the category became after the Globes, there was a chance he could pull off an upset and win. With Elordi losing the BAFTA and Actor Award, that ship has officially sailed. I do think there is a bright awards future for Elordi after this, but Frankenstein will not be his first win.

Thank you all for reading this and please feel free to comment your thoughts! I look forward to interacting with all of you this awards season and sharing with all of you how The Oscar Code can help determine what will win Best Picture before the awards begin.