This morning came the moment of truth and clarity. The Oscar nominations were announced this morning with Sinners leading the pack with a record breaking 16 nominations and One Battle After Another following it with 13 nominations. As expected every year, there are surprises and snubs that shape the Oscar landscape as we know it. In today’s Stock Report, we will go over which of these storylines from today you want to buy into for the season and which to ignore or sell.

STOCK UP

A record day for Warner Bros. As discussed above, Sinners and One Battle After Another were the most nominated films this cycle with 16 and 13 nominations respectively. Warner Bros. also landed a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Amy Madigan in Weapons, totaling 30 nominations for the studio. This was not only the most nominations any studio had this year, this is the most in the studio’s history, tying back to their nomination haul in 2005. As I have said all cycle, Warner Bros. is definitely using the blueprint that helped Searchlight have the top winning films in the 2017-2018 Oscar race with The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. While Sinners winning the Box Office Achievement award I believe hurt its chances to win Best Picture, I feel a lot better about the film doing well in the race ultimately with its nominations.

F1 makes the cut after all. One of the most shocking Best Picture nominees this morning was easily Apple’s F1. While it landed a Producers Guild nomination, it did not have Best Picture nominations in any other awards group. I had listed the PGA nomination as a stock to ignore a few weeks ago…then I remembered how well Apple campaigned CODA in 2021-2022 to a Best Picture win. The fact Apple got F1 in is a win for the studio and a reminder to not ignore a Guild nomination, especially in a year where expected blockbuster sequels did not land as well with awards groups. This is also a lesson learned on my end: never ignore a successful film from Apple’s chances.

Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent were Neon’s priorities. In a year where Neon bought several films from Cannes to compete for both Best Picture and Best International Feature Film, two emerged to make both nominations. Sentimental Value dominated of the two, landing with 9 nominations. The Secret Agent ended up with 4 nominations. In hindsight, the reason for these two films’s strengths were the fact that they had acting nominees that were well known and positively received throughout this awards cycle (Moura and Skarsgard recently won the Globe). While it ultimately hurt some of its other nominees, this was a great day for both films.

Bugonia was a strong contender all along. After its surprising Producers Guild nomination and getting lead nominations at the Actor Awards, I had a feeling Bugonia was going to sneak in and was more well received by voters than expected. Turns out that was very much the case with the film landing 4 nominations this morning, including Best Actress for Emma Stone. While Jesse Plemons missed the cut for Best Actor, this was still a great showing for a film that was written off by many pundits and is considered the studio’s second priority behind Hamnet.

STOCK DOWN

Wicked: For Good is not this year’s Dune Part Two, it’s this year’s Joker: Folie a Deux. While I had a gut feeling Wicked: For Good was not as strong of a contender compared to its predecessor, I was still very surprised it did not land any nominations. The film was expected to have a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Grande and several technical award nominations, but ended up with nothing. This is a very disappointing turnout for the sequel, where the predecessor landed 10 nominations last year. This is not an accidental snub from voters, it is outright rejection similar to last year’s Joker: Folie a Deux. Luckily Universal has The Odyssey and Disclosure Day next awards season to bounce back from this.

Neon’s Palme d’Or-Best Picture streak has ended. Since 2019, Neon has bought the Palme d’Or winner from Cannes. Most have landed Best Picture nominations. The only two to miss: 2021’s Titane and this year’s It Was Just An Accident. While Neon had an overall great day, this is still a disappointing turnout for It Was Just An Accident. It was not only a contender for Best Picture, it was also a contender for Best Director and was snubbed in both categories. It did receive a Best International Feature and Best Original Screenplay nomination, but for a film that won the Palme d’Or, it should have received more nominations.

Category fraud actors got snubbed. The two biggest snubs in the acting awards today were Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another and Paul Mescal for Hamnet. Both were considered safe locks for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor after being nominated at the Actor Awards, Critics Choice Awards, and Golden Globes. However, both of these performances were considered by many to be “category fraud” or a case of a lead actor going supporting or a supporting actor going lead to help increase its chances of a nomination. While I do not know if that was the ultimate cause of the snubs, these were very noteworthy and a potential lesson for studios moving forward when campaigning.

Searchlight is taking this awards season off. None of Searchlight’s contenders (The Testament of Ann Lee, Is This Thing On?, and Rental Family) landed any nominations today. The writing was starting to be on the wall for these films after missing crucial Guild nominations a few weeks ago and now is made official after zero nominations from the studio. Once considered one of the great campaign studios, this is a huge fall from grace from Searchlight. My hope is they regroup and rebuild to prepare for next awards season. But between this year and its main contender last season, A Complete Unknown, going home empty handed, I have some right to be concerned with their awards futures.

Thank you all for reading this and please feel free to comment your thoughts! I look forward to interacting with all of you this awards season and sharing with all of you how The Oscar Code can help determine what will win Best Picture before the awards begin.