Last night’s Golden Globes revealed a lot about the Oscar landscape. Hamnet and One Battle After Another were the two Best Picture winners in Drama and Musical/Comedy. One Battle After Another was the big winner of the night and also won Best Director, Best Screenplay, and Best Supporting Actress for Teyana Taylor. Hamnet had won Best Actress for Jessie Buckley outside of Picture-Drama. Other notable winners included The Secret Agent winning Best Non-English Language Film and Best Actor for Wagner Moura, Sinners winning Cinematic and Box Office Achievement and Best Score, and Stellan Skarsgard winning Best Supporting Actor for Sentimental Value. What do these wins ultimately mean for the state of the Oscars? Here is the stock report that will show which narratives to buy into and which could be stock to sell.

STOCK UP

One Battle After Another is the film to beat. This is nothing new but One Battle After Another passed another test last night in terms of the Oscar landscape. It was the most nominated film going into last night’s awards and won the most which shows strong voter support. One Battle After Another did enough to solidify itself as the frontrunner before next week’s Oscar nominations. While Best Picture – Musical or Comedy has only a 10% Best Picture win rate in the past 20 years (the last Oscar Best Picture winner from this category was 2018’s Green Book), it has won pretty much everywhere else that it would be a huge surprise if it did not win Best Picture at the Oscars.

The Secret Agent is alive again. Neon had a very disappointing week at the Guilds with only Sentimental Value landing a nomination at the Producers Guild of America Awards. However, The Secret Agent redeemed itself last night with its wins. Additionally, it won the Critics Choice Award last week for Best Foreign Language Film. While the Guild snubs are a bump in the road for the film, its wins at last night’s show that this film is Neon’s second priority behind Sentimental Value and Moura could make the cut in the Best Actor slot.

This might actually be Timothee Chalamet’s year. After winning the Critics Choice Award last week for Best Actor, Chalamet won Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy for Marty Supreme last night. He is now the youngest winner of Best Actor in that category. If he wins at the Actor Awards and BAFTA next, he could win after going home empty-handed last year for his performance in A Complete Unknown. I will say that this decade has developed a trend of “the face of the Best Picture winner” which has helped Mikey Madison, Michelle Yeoh, Cillian Murphy, and Frances McDormand win Oscars this decade. That is the only thing right now that could hurt Chalamet. But right now, the odds are very much in his favor to win this year.

Best Supporting Actress has a clear two finalists. Teyana Taylor won Best Supporting Actress last night for One Battle After Another. Amy Madigan was the presumed frontrunner after winning at the Critics Choice Awards and numerous early awards. The race is now between Taylor and Madigan for the award. The Actor Awards and BAFTA will definitely show who ends up prevailing as the winner. At the same time, Warner Bros. is going to have its hands full campaigning both of these actresses. This should be an interesting race.

STOCK TO KEEP AN EYE ON

Best Supporting Actor is wide open. Stellan Skarsgard won Best Supporting Actor last night at the Globes for Sentimental Value. Normally, I would say that the race is between him, Critics Choice Award winner Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein, and Benicio del Toro for One Battle After Another after winning several early critics awards. However, Skarsgard was not nominated at the Actor Awards. The Actor Awards and BAFTA for this category could make things very interesting. I currently am unsure who will win in this category as of now. In fact, I would not be surprised if the race is as close to the wire as Best Supporting Actress was in 2022.

STOCK TO IGNORE

Hamnet winning Picture-Drama is just Focus being Focus. While it was nice to see Hamnet win this award last night, I think this means more positively for Jessie Buckley’s chances of winning Best Actress than the film being a frontrunner for Best Picture. The film’s studio, Focus Features, has never won a Best Picture Oscar. However, the studio has historically done well at the Globes with Brokeback Mountain, Atonement, and The Kids Are All Right winning Best Picture in their respective categories. Not to mention, there is a 30% Best Picture win rate with this category in the past 20 winners (the last Best Picture winner from this category was 2023’s Oppenheimer). If there is a stock to buy from Hamnet, buy Buckley winning Actress. I would be surprised considering Focus’s campaign issues that if Hamnet won Best Picture. Especially given they are also actively campaigning for Bugonia.

STOCK DOWN

Sinners won the one award it needed to lose. This one hurts to write. I had predicted Sinners as my early pick for Best Picture in September. I was confident that Sinners could pull off a late season upset like Anora did last year. Then, it won the Cinematic and Box Office Achievement Globe last night. That award basically was its chance’s kiss of death. Previous winners included Barbie and Wicked, which both underperformed at the Oscars despite being highly nominated films. Sinners would have been better off going home with just Score or empty handed, like Anora did last year to continue its chances. I am sad to say, considering I was hoping to repeat predicting the winner this early on in the race two years in a row, that I am waving the white flag officially. It is over for Sinners in terms of winning Best Picture.

It Was Just An Accident looks vulnerable. Long considered to be Neon’s second priority after winning the Palme d’Or in May, this week may have shown otherwise. It lost Best Foreign Language Film at the Critics Choice Awards, was completely snubbed at the Guild Awards, and went home empty handed at last night’s Globes despite being nominated for 4 awards. While I still ultimately believe in it being nominated for International Feature Film and Director, I can see a world where it misses Picture. This would be Neon’s first Palme d’Or winner since Titane to miss a Best Picture nomination if that is the case. Time will tell on this one.

Ariana Grande’s loss at the Globes might’ve sealed the deal for Wicked. Despite Wicked: For Good underperforming in this year’s awards cycle in comparison to its predecessor, Ariana Grande was still nominated for Best Supporting Actress in every awards show so far. Some still even considered her the frontrunner after losing last year. However, Grande lost Best Supporting Actress to Teyana Taylor last night and as discussed above, might not truly be in the frontrunner conversation. This might be the end of the road for Grande. And considering Wicked: For Good‘s underperformance at the Guild nominations this week, I would be surprised if this sequel is even nominated for Best Picture at this point.

Thank you all for reading this and please feel free to comment your thoughts! I look forward to interacting with all of you this awards season and sharing with all of you how The Oscar Code can help determine what will win Best Picture before the awards begin.