This week was a busy week in the awards landscape. Not only are the Golden Globes being announced tomorrow night, the three major Guilds announced their nomination for their respective year-end awards. Those awards are the Producers Guild of America Awards, the Directors Guild of America Awards, and the Actor Awards presented by SAG-AFTRA. These three Guilds are huge in determining the ultimate outcome of the race for Best Picture. As a result, there are some narratives about films that arise out of these nominations. Today, I am introducing a new section of the Oscar Code, which is the Stock Report, which will show which films are safe for Best Picture, neutral for a nomination, or nomination chances are going down the drain.

STOCK UP

There are a clear five favorites among the industry. Out of all the nominated films, five films were nominated for Best Ensemble at the Actor Awards, Best Director at the Directors Guild, and Best Theatrical Motion Picture. The five films are Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, and Sinners. With these nominations, these are clearly the favorites among voters and are the current safest locks for a Best Picture nomination.

Bugonia shows a lot of life. Not only did Bugonia land a Producers Guild of America nomination, it also did well at the Actor Awards. While it did not land a Best Ensemble nomination, Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons were nominated for Best Lead Actress and Best Lead Actor respectively. This shows that voters really like Bugonia and it is a safer bet to land in the Best Picture race than previously thought. Additionally, do not count out Emma Stone making the five for Actress. Plemons could make the cut, but this is his first major nomination and Actor is a much more competitive race.

Amy Madigan looking like a true frontrunner in Supporting Actress. When several early critics group awards picked Amy Madigan as their Best Supporting Actress selection for Weapons, it was almost a guarantee she would be nominated. Now with Weapons getting a nomination for Best Theatrical Motion Picture at the Producers Guild of America Awards, I am buying the hype she’s the frontrunner. She won at Critics Choice Awards earlier this week, and if she wins the Globe, bank on the win for Madigan. While I am unsure if Weapons will land a Best Picture nomination ultimately, this is very encouraging for the film and shows it has support among voters.

Sentimental Value looking like Neon’s safest nominee. While Sentimental Value was snubbed completely at the Actor Awards and the Directors Guild of America Awards, it still landed a nomination for Best Theatrical Motion Picture at the Producers Guild of America Awards. More important to note, it was the sole international nominee in that nominee group. I will further discuss Neon’s remaining nominees in another section, but is clear that Sentimental Value is the true top priority for Neon. And bank on it landing a Best Picture nomination and it is the current frontrunner for Best International Feature considering the support from voters.

STOCK TO IGNORE

F1’s PGA Nomination. F1 was a pleasant surprise to be nominated at the Producers Guild of America Awards. While I think this ultimately shows that voters like the film and it will do well in the technical races, I would be surprised if it landed a Best Picture nomination. This is the first Best Picture nomination for the film in any of the races so far and considering there are so many international players in the race, I would not be surprised if F1 missed the cut.

STOCK DOWN

Critically divisive blockbuster sequels failed to land. Both Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good did not land a nomination at the Producers Guild of America Awards. While Ariana Grande was nominated for Supporting Actress at the Actor Awards, Wicked: For Good did not land any other nominations with the Actor Awards whereas its predecessor was the most nominated film with that group this time last year. Both films, while well-received by audiences, did not land as strongly with critics as their previous films did. Both sequels are very much in trouble in terms of landing a Best Picture nomination after this week.

Neon’s other international films might be in trouble. While Sentimental Value got a nomination with the Producers Guild of America, Neon’s other films (It Was Just An Accident, No Other Choice, Sirat, and The Secret Agent) were snubbed from all three major Guilds. The surprising ones were Jafar Panahi not landing a Director nomination for It Was Just An Accident and Wagner Moura missing out on Lead Actor for The Secret Agent. While the Guilds are more favorable to domestic films than international ones, these are still surprising snubs. I do think some of them will be fine in terms of Oscar nominations, these are not as strong or as safe as previously thought.

Searchlight is in for a tank year. None of Searchlight’s films (Is This Thing On?, Rental Family, and The Testament of Ann Lee) got any nominations from any of the Guilds. The Testament of Ann Lee, if anything, was thought to land Amanda Seyfried a nomination for Best Lead Actress at the Actor Awards. Considering none of their films landed nominations, it is not looking good for any of them to ultimately be nominated. This is a disappointing turnout for Searchlight, which used to be one of the best campaigning studios for the Oscars.

Jay Kelly is a long shot. For some reason despite divisive reviews, Netflix’s Jay Kelly was expected to be in the mix at the Producers Guild of America Awards and the Actor Awards. Jay Kelly ultimately was not nominated for anything. Instead of Jay Kelly, Netflix’s films Frankenstein and Train Dreams were nominated. This might be the final nail in the coffin for the film. It shows voters preferred Netflix’s other two nominees over this one.

Thank you all for reading this and please feel free to comment your thoughts! I look forward to interacting with all of you this awards season and sharing with all of you how The Oscar Code can help determine what will win Best Picture before the awards begin.