After winning Best Film at New York Film Critics Circle, National Board of Review, Gotham Independent Film Awards, and the Atlanta Film Critics Circle earlier this week, One Battle After Another has won that same award with another film critics group. Earlier today, the Paul Thomas Anderson epic political action comedy won Best Picture at the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. Paul Thomas Anderson also won Best Director with this group today. This is the fifth major win for One Battle After Another this week and it won at all major critics groups. It has a clear lead in the race, but what does this win at the Los Angeles Film Critics Association mean for its chances down the line? While I was a bit more pessimistic about the other wins statistically, this win slightly has made me change my tune for several reasons.

LAFCA Best Picture Winner	Oscar Best Picture Win	Oscar Best Picture Nomination
Brokeback Mountain	No	Yes
Letters from Iwo Jima	No	Yes
There Will Be Blood	No	Yes
WALL-E	No	No
The Hurt Locker	Yes	Yes
The Social Network	No	Yes
The Descendants	No	Yes
Amour	No	Yes
Gravity/Her (TIE)	No/No	Yes/Yes
Boyhood	No	Yes
Spotlight	Yes	Yes
Moonlight	Yes	Yes
Call Me by Your Name	No	Yes
Roma	No	Yes
Parasite	Yes	Yes
Small Axe	No	No
Drive My Car	No	Yes
Everything Everywhere All at Once/Tar	Yes/No	Yes/Yes
The Zone of Interest	No	Yes
Anora	Yes	Yes
Total Best Picture Wins in 20 years (out of 24 movies given 2013 and 2022)	6
Likelihood Film Wins Best Picture After Winning Award	25%
Total Best Picture Nominations in 20 years (out of 24 movies given 2013 and 2022)	22
Likelihood Film Gets Best Picture Nomination After Winning Award	91.67%

As you can see in the 20 year sample of Los Angeles Film Critics Association winners, 22 (91.67%) were nominated for Best Picture. However, 6 of the 24 winners (25%) ended up winning Best Picture, which means only 27.3% of the Los Angeles Film Critics Association winners that were nominated for Best Picture ultimately won the award. From a 20 year sample, this is much more optimistic chances than the NBR winners or NYFCC, but is equally in line with the Gotham Independent Film Awards. However, from a 10 year sample, 5 of the 11 winners at the Los Angeles Film Association, or 45.5%, ultimately won Best Picture. Last year’s Best Picture recipient from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, Anora, also won Best Picture at the Oscars. So from a recency standpoint, this has been much more accurate in predicting the Best Picture winner than both the NYFCC and National Board of Review.

Additionally, One Battle After Another is the first film that has ever won Best Film at the Gotham Independent Film Awards, National Board of Review, NYFCC, and LAFCA. This is now unprecedented territory. I was much more pessimistic about NYFCC and National Board of Review because of how long it’s been since they have had a winner align with the Oscar. Given LAFCA had a more recent winner and a better 10 year sample than the other two voting bodies, I am more comfortable with claiming it as the frontrunner of the race. I still have some wariness with proclaiming a frontrunner after early critics awards, but the fact all these different voting bodies are so united on the film is so unprecedented that it would be a shock if it ultimately does not win Best Picture at the Guilds or the Oscars. I will even wave the white flag on my early prediction in October, Sinners, pulling off the Best Picture win. It is now at a point where One Battle After Another very well could be our next Best Picture winner.

With LAFCA’s 10 year sample of winners having a better track record than other voting bodies I have covered this week, I am much more comfortable proclaiming One Battle After Another will likely win Best Picture in March. It is the only film that has won at Gotham, Atlanta, New York, National Board of Review, and Los Angeles. It is a film that is uniting the industry and critics alike. I am happy for the film and Paul Thomas Anderson for doing so well this early. While it is still early, I am officially changing my tune and I think One Battle After Another safely is the frontrunner of the race.

Thank you all for reading this and please feel free to comment your thoughts! I look forward to interacting with all of you this awards season and sharing with all of you how The Oscar Code can help determine what will win Best Picture long before the awards begin.