I hope everyone is enjoying their Sunday! I once again want to thank everyone who read the Case Study series the past few weeks and I hope you all learned a bit more about how each nominee last year won or lost Best Picture. As mentioned in my Anora case study, Anora was my prediction to win Best Picture since last September due to a particular statistical correlation between its Palme d’Or win and it placing top three at the Toronto International Film Festival. I felt that correlation, which I call the “Paranora Path”, showed strong international support for the film which I felt would boost it over all of the nominees last year. In fact, that very call last September was ultimately what made me want to start The Oscar Code to help similar Oscar bettors like myself. Considering where that call took me last year despite several doubts earlier in the race, I wanted to try to see if my early prediction this season would strike iron twice!

Unfortunately, there is no “Paranora path” or real statistical trend I can really predict this early frontrunner out of this year. This year’s Palme d’Or winner It Was Just An Accident did not place top 3 in the Toronto International Film Festival despite premiering and competing there. Despite 75% of the People’s Choice Award winners at Toronto International Film Festival in the past 20 years were nominated for Best Picture, only 5 People’s Choice Award winners in that 20 year span won Best Picture. I know several people believe this year’s People Choice Award winner Hamnet will be a major frontrunner, its distributor Focus Features has never won Best Picture and that alone concerns me despite my belief it will be a player in this year’s race. Additionally, the past 20 years of Venice Film Festival Golden Lion winners winning Best Picture is very low at 10% and considering that only 30% of Golden Lion winners in the past 20 years were even nominated for Best Picture, which does not bode well for this year’s winner Father Mother Sister Brother, which is one of many focuses for distributor MUBI. Although there is a lack of statistical correlations for this year’s race in the festival, I truly feel more confident that this year is a year where a blockbuster wins Best Picture. Before I reveal my pick, I have seen the love and support of this film the past few months not just by audiences, but by the industry and critics. I have felt the response of this film is comparable to the strong response that Everything Everywhere All at Once had in 2022 and Oppenheimer had in 2023. While the film’s distributor has another contender in the race that is viewed very strongly, I feel that the studio will heavily campaign for both films and they will go home victorious, but I think one of those two is more overlooked currently and I think could be a quiet sleeper to win Best Picture.

If you haven’t guessed it, my early prediction to win Best Picture currently is Sinners. Ryan Coogler’s horror musical drama hybrid about twin brothers returning to their hometown where they have to face a supernatural evil was an unexpected pop culture phenomenon this year. It was a surprise sleeper hit at the box office grossing $367 million worldwide on a budget between $90 and $100 million and had historically great following weekend drops (with a 4.9% second weekend drop, which is third-best behind Shrek and Avatar). Not only was it a box office success, audiences and critics both loved the film. The film received a 97% on Rotten Tomatoes by critics and had an A CinemaScore from audiences, which was the highest CinemaScore grade for a horror film in 35 years. This was the second major box office hit of the year for Warner Brothers, which had 7 consecutive movies from April to September open with $40 million or more its opening weekend. Based on its unprecedented and unexpected success, I feel Oscar voters are going to be very kind to Sinners.

One reason I think Sinners could pull it off is the fact that director Ryan Coogler has had Oscar success previously for an unexpected contender. His 2018 film Black Panther was the first superhero film to be nominated for Best Picture and was the second most awarded film at that ceremony with 3 Oscars, tying with eventual Best Picture winner Green Book. That film also won the Best Ensemble award at the Screen Actors Guild Awards that year, which is a major Guild award in the Oscar race (55% of Best Ensemble winners in the past 20 years also won Best Picture). Considering the director’s previous success at the Oscars and Guilds for Black Panther, his team is very experienced with the campaign process and should have no issue selling another unexpected contender to voters. While Warner Brothers also has One Battle After Another, which a lot of people view as the frontrunner, I fear it’s going to win a lot of those early awards that have a statistically poor correlation to Best Picture winners. It is the expected frontrunner at the Golden Globes where it will compete in Musical or Comedy, which has a 10% Best Picture win rate in the past 20 years. It is also an expected frontrunner in the National Board of Review and several of the Critics Circle awards, which has a 15% Best Picture win rate for National Board of Review, a 15% Best Picture win rate for New York Film Critics Circle, and a 25% Best Picture win rate for Los Angeles Film Critics Association if it were to win any of those awards. Sinners is competing in the Golden Globes for Best Drama and is not expected to be the current frontrunner, which is Hamnet, but the loss of that award I feel would benefit Sinners considering that award has a 30% Best Picture win rate. I also fear One Battle After Another could suffer the fate of many early frontrunners such as The Social Network, The Brutalist, The Fabelmans, and The Banshees of Inisherin where the Guilds tell a different story than the Globes or Critics awards. I do believe that Warner Brothers is going to have both heavily compete similarly to what Searchlight did in 2017 for both Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri considering their successful box office year and ironically I am betting on the supernatural film over the political satire this year which ended up winning the race in 2017. While audiences loved both Sinners and One Battle After Another, Sinners was the bigger box office story of the two and the one that brought more audiences in. I get more Everything Everywhere All at Once and Oppenheimer vibes from Sinners than something like Wicked, Dune, or Top Gun: Maverick in which this is a film that united both critics and audiences and brought people to theaters and to explore in different formats because of strong repeat viewings. Considering Warner Brothers is campaigning both Sinners and One Battle After Another, I can truly see a world where they campaign their bigger box office story as a celebration to their great year. My current bet is that Sinners wins Picture and that Paul Thomas Anderson wins Best Director for One Battle After Another as a sign Warner Brothers will campaign heavily for both films.

While I strongly believe Sinners could pull off the win, there are definitely a few factors that could end up losing it Best Picture. The first one is simple, it is going up against One Battle After Another, which is the current frontrunner according to many and is also distributed by Warner Brothers. I was debating between declaring Sinners and One Battle After Another as my early prediction for weeks after how well it did with audiences, but that is the current safer bet of the two and the safer bet is not only not exciting to talk about, it could also prove to be a risk this early on in the race. Regardless, One Battle After Another is a very real threat to Sinners losing Best Picture and I am not denying that. Another factor that could hurt Sinners is the Academy’s bias against horror films. The last and only horror film to win Best Picture was Silence of the Lambs in 1991. After that, The Sixth Sense, Black Swan, Get Out, and The Substance all were nominated and did not win the award. I feel that Sinners has an edge considering it is more of a period drama than a horror film and its musical sequences that honor the history of music I think make it a more appealing film to various voters. Still, I will not deny that genre bias over the years. Finally, one factor that I think could derail its chances is if it wins the Golden Globe Award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement. As mentioned in my Wicked case study, winning that award not only has hurt your chances, it shows that you might not be as serious of a contender in voters’ eyes. Wicked and Barbie both underperformed at the Oscars after winning that award. I personally think Wicked: For Good or Avatar: Fire and Ash could end up winning that Globe, but Sinners is very much in the conversation considering its historic box office story. That win could change everything for its campaign.

Based on its strong love from critics, audiences, and the industry, I really believe that Sinners could pull off the Best Picture win as of right now. A lot of factors including being the face of Warner Brothers’ successful box office year, director Ryan Coogler’s previous success in the Oscars and Guilds, and being viewed as a film that united critics and audiences and brought them to the theater I feel help its chances immensely. While One Battle After Another is a real threat and the Academy’s bias against horror films are strong factors for it to lose, I really feel this film could have momentum in the long run. The fact this film is still being talked about as a major contender since its release in April I feel is a great sign in the long run. Will I be two for two calling the race this early after I called Anora‘s win last September? Time will tell on that front, but I really believe in Sinners’s chances currently and that people should not overlook its chances at winning Best Picture in March.

Thank you all for reading this and please feel free to comment your thoughts! I will start writing and posting articles within a month again when the Critics Groups awards and nominations begin to unveil. I look forward to interacting with all of you this awards season and sharing with all of you how The Oscar Code can help determine what will win Best Picture long before the awards begin. Take care everyone!