Welcome back to the next installment of The Oscar Code’s Case Study series. I hope you all enjoyed my Emilia Perez article from Sunday and learned about that film’s Oscar campaign path. As mentioned before, this is a series that will go over the previous year’s nominees and why it ultimately won or lost the award that year using historical data. The order of the series will be in reverse chronological order of the odds of winning for last year’s Best Picture nominees from Ben Zausmer’s Oscar Betting Odds 2025 article. The next film that will be discussed is Conclave.

The Story During Awards Season: Conclave, a political thriller based on the 2016 novel by Thomas Harris about a conclave during an election for the next pope, was nominated for Best Picture after receiving strong critical acclaim and was well received in the festival circuit. The film was acclaimed for its ensemble cast, editing, and its political allegories. Outside of its high critical reception, Conclave was also well received by audiences grossing $127 million worldwide on a $20 million budget. It was nominated for 8 Oscars including Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Score, Best Editing, Best Production Design, and Best Costume Design. The film’s sole win at the ceremony was for Best Adapted Screenplay. Due to later last minute wins in certain precursor awards, Conclave became a surprise spoiler candidate and a popular alternate frontrunner against Anora.

What Helped Its Nomination: As mentioned above, Conclave was highly well received by critics, festivals, and audiences which lead to numerous nominations and wins. Its Oscar journey began with successful premieres at the Telluride Film Festival and Toronto Film Festival, which increased the film’s popularity with critics and voters. The film was subsequently nominated for Best Picture-Drama at the Golden Globes, Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and the Producers Guild of America Awards, and a Best Director nomination at the Directors Guild of America Awards. It was also listed in the top 10 lists for the American Film Institute and the National Board of Review. The film won Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, Critics Choice Awards, and the British Academy Film Awards. It was one of the leading winners at the British Academy Film Awards where it won Best Film. The later wins at the British Academy Film Awards and the Screen Actors Guild led many to believe the film could be a last minute frontrunner for Best Picture. Outside of that, the film’s various nominations guaranteed it a slot for a nomination.

Why It Ended Up Losing Best Picture: Despite its last minute traction, Conclave‘s wins were ultimately not enough to compete with Anora. The film had great Guild support, as seen with its nominations for Producers Guild of America and Directors Guild of America and its Ensemble win at Screen Actors Guild, however statistically it needed one more. 55% of the Best Picture winners in the past 20 years won the Screen Actors Guild Best Ensemble which is one of the biggest voting bodies, but only 30% of the Best Picture winners in the past 20 years only won one major Guild award. In comparison to the 65% of Best Picture winners in the past 20 years that have won 2 or more major Guild awards, the odds were always lower in Conclave‘s favor. Additionally, a majority of the wins throughout the cycle were not in the Best Picture category, but instead in the Best Ensemble and Best Adapted Screenplay categories. It triumphed at the Screen Actors Guild Awards for Best Ensemble and ultimately won the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay, so while the Screen Actors Guild win helped its chances, I truly think this was a case where they awarded the best cast rather than the Best Picture. Additionally, the film’s distributor Focus Features has a terrible track record in terms of Best Picture. They have had several strong contenders that were close to winning it, but ultimately fell short (Brokeback Mountain, The Holdovers, and Promising Young Woman to name some examples). That is more the reason why I truly did not believe in Conclave’s chances despite its strong latter victories in the race.

The Ultimate Takeaway: While Conclave had a Guild win and overall strong support in the race, it was not enough to beat Anora. I truly place the blame on Focus Features which I’ve mentioned has underperformed at the Oscars for Best Picture over the years. They have never been able to win it even with strong campaigns such as this film. Several people are placing bets on their film Hamnet to win Best Picture at the moment. I personally am wary considering the distributor and Conclave is the latest example why you should be also.

Hope you all enjoyed the latest installment of the Case Study series! The final installment of last year’s nominees will be out on Thursday and will cover last year’s Best Picture winner Anora. Feel free to provide feedback and ask any questions about this series! I look forward to hearing from all of you.